AUSTRALIAN troops in southern Afghanistan face worsening security and their battlefield successes against the Taliban are not winning the support of local people, a confidential report and secret polling show.

Coming less than a week after the sixth Australian soldier died in Afghanistan, the findings undermine claims of progress and reinforce Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's warning of more troop deaths.

The Sun-Herald has obtained a confidential security report that warns the capital, Kabul, will become virtually cut off from the rest of the country and is likely to be the target of a "spectacular" terrorist attack.

It says security in Oruzgan province, where about 1000 Australian troops are based and where Signaller Sean McCarthy was killed last week, will deteriorate, with the likelihood of more casualties among foreign troops.

The report, by international security consultants, says tactical successes against the Taliban are not being translated into long-term improvements in the lives of Afghan people.

The report's warnings are underlined by a secret poll undertaken for NATO that reveals Oruzgan residents are increasingly negative towards foreign troops and regard their level of security as poor and getting worse.

Security in Oruzgan and the rest of southern Afghanistan is extremely poor and the province is an "extreme risk", the report says.

Counter-insurgency operations, while "tactically successful", brought "temporary respite, but long-term improvement is proving elusive", while insurgents were committed to "spectacular attacks designed to shake confidence in the government within Afghanistan, and abroad", the report says.

Separately, a poll of 6000 people throughout Afghanistan, undertaken for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, is understood to show that almost 60 per cent of those polled in Oruzgan province have a negative view of ISAF. A similar proportion judged security to be poor and about 45 per cent said security had deteriorated since last year.